Roman Catholic Church prepares for one of the most consequential conclaves in modern history, the outcome is more uncertain than ever. Image: Euro News.
(The Post News)– As speculation mounts around the next papal conclave, a century-old saying remains current in Vatican circles: ”He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal.” In other words, favourites don’t win. While the Roman Catholic Church prepares for one of the most fateful conclaves in recent times, the winner is more a mystery than ever.
The 2013 conclave justified the argument when Cardinal Angelo Scola, who was at the time thought to be a cinch by most Italians, was bypassed in favour of Jorge Mario Bergoglio—now Pope Francis. The surprise choice was the first Latin American pope and put the church on a trajectory of reform that continues to shake up the College of Cardinals and the wider church.
Twelve years later, Francis’ vision of a less Eurocentric and more global church has revolutionised the papal candidacy terrain. He has made over 70% of today’s cardinal electors, most of whom come from countries and dioceses that never before had seen a red hat—Tonga, Haiti, and Papua New Guinea, just to mention a few. The one-time faithful Italian bloc is fractured. The race is open.
This upcoming conclave will decide if the Catholic Church moves further along Francis’ liberal track or veers back towards conservatism. The new pope will not only have to navigate theological fault lines but also global challenges—war, climate change, mass migration, and increasing secularism.
Among those whose names were being whispered in hushed tones within Vatican corridors, some cardinals came on the radar because of their experience, global perspective, and leadership abilities:
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60)
The Jerusalem Patriarch, Pizzaballa, emerged as a low-profile but successful leader throughout the Israel-Hamas war. Italian by birth, his work has been centered in the Middle East, which has given him an international level of recognition and detachment from Vatican politics. His relatively young age might work against him in a conclave that may prefer a shorter pontificate.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is a seasoned diplomat with four languages to his credit. He has played a key role in building relations with China and Vietnam and is viewed as a centrist, pragmatic thinker. A veteran of the Roman Curia, Parolin can be viewed as a steady pair of hands in turbulent times.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo, 65)
A close friend of Pope Francis, Ambongo is the future of the church in Africa, where the Catholic faithful are growing fast. He has solid pastoral credentials, with one glitch: his vocal anti-blessing stance for gay couples might not be well-received by more progressive voters.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)
Long seen as a “pope-in-waiting”, Tagle is popular, media-savvy, and deeply attuned to Francis’ pastoral style. A solid candidate from Southeast Asia, Tagle’s experience in global missions and social justice issues places him in the running.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)
Bologna Archbishop and papal nuncio to Ukraine, Zuppi is the progressive darling. His close relationship with the Sant’Egidio peace movement and public advocacy for migrants and L.G.B.T. Catholics is a sign of continuity with Francis’ priorities — albeit perhaps for others at odds with his love of activist movements.
Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary, 72)
A conservative in doctrine with a diplomatic bent, Erdo is attractive to those who long for a return to the theological orthodoxy of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI. His lawyer’s mind, international reputation, and multilingual skills render him an intriguing, if polarising, figure.
Cardinal Anders Arborelius (Sweden, 75)
Sweden’s first cardinal and a onetime Lutheran, Arborelius will bring a unique voice from a secularised Western world. His emphasis on unity, bridge-building, and humility reflects Francis’ pastoral tone but may be a liability with his advanced age.
Whoever emerges from the Sistine Chapel with the white smoke will inherit a profoundly transformed church from the one that elected Pope Francis. The College of Cardinals today is more universal, more pluralistic, and less predictable. Francis’ reform broke up the old power blocks and opened the door to new voices — but at the same time, to uncertainty.
The new pope will be asked to mend a broken church, provide moral leadership in an increasingly fragmented world, and deal with such pressing issues as clergy sex abuse and the role of women in the church. Above all, he will have to deal with a 1.3 billion-member worldwide flock of Catholics — not just from the altar in Rome, but from the ends of the earth.
And as history has proven, the actual “papabile” might not yet be on anyone’s radar.
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