Climate change predicted to cause millions of deaths by 2099. Image credit: MSN
(The Post News)- A horrifying new study has predicted just how many people in Europe will die due to climate change by the end of the century. Scientists at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine have predicted that about 5.8 million Europeans will be killed by excess heat between 2015 and 2099. Experts warn that their study underestimates the true costs, excluding climate-driven disasters like wildfires and tropical storms.
Although the team admits that rising temperatures will prevent people from dying of cold, the number of heat deaths will outweigh the fewer cold deaths. Scientists claim that Barcelona will face the highest temperature-related death toll by the end of the century, followed by Rome, Naples, and Madrid.
Dr. Pierre Masselot, lead author, says their results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. Masselot says this is critical in the Mediterranean area, where if nothing is done, the consequences could be dire. He further adds that by following a more sustainable pathway, they would be able to avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century.
The new study, however, indicates that this theory is not true, at least in Europe. Experts say that the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios. Dr. Masselot and his colleagues analyzed temperature and mortality data to predict future temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities between 2015 and 2099.
The researchers worked out a ‘net’ figure for each city, calculating the number of deaths caused by heat minus deaths ‘saved’ from the cold. Europe’s net mortality rate by 2099 is projected to be 2,345,410, with cold-related deaths significantly reduced. Europe’s southern regions, including the Mediterranean and Balkans, are most at risk for heat-related deaths.
The study has found that with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across Europe. Although cold-related deaths are taken into account, 2.3 million Europeans will die due to heat by 2099.
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