El Nino bites South African maize harvest down by 19%

Picture courtesy- Mathipa Phishego

Mathipa Phishego

Maize Production Hit Hard by El Niño Heatwaves

(The Post News)- South African’s domestic food inflation is suspected to rise during this second quarter due to late summer heatwaves caused by El Nino, the production of maize meal and other summer products. A report by Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), a consequence of El Nino sees South Africa’s maize production falling over 19% in 2024 making it 13,255 million tonnes from being 16,430 million tonnes harvest that was reaped last year.

Maize Shortages Threaten Food Security and Inflation

This poses a concern for poor South Africans and working-class households. There is a concern on the outlook for staple white maize meal, subsistence farmers hard labour shall not bear good results as the impact of the El Niño effect. Other regions that import white maize meal from South Africa are likely to have grim implications for food, household income, and domestic inflation.

South Africa will have less, if any, white maize spares to export to countries that have also seen their crop wither. The CEC’s second production estimate for the 2024 South African summer crop season was released a month ago. In its first report, it showed a maize crop of almost 14.4 million tonnes, down 12,6 percent from 2023. “The production of yellow maize, used mostly to feed animals, is not seen falling as white maize,” explains the CEC’s report.

Regional Maize Production and Weather Variations

The platteland has been seared much by the heat waves and a shortage of rain. It may wield the panga again although the CEC expect has been slashed. Mpumalanga plant belt has had better rain than the central and western regions of the country, where most of the white maize grows. Another report provided by Barchart.com shows that yellow maize in South Africa is expected to increase by 4.5 percent over the past year.

However, white maize meal prices will go up over 23 percent. This includes other products like soybeans and sorghum which significantly lowered the year 2024. The issue does not revolve only on maize meal, but it is the focus of attention because of its importance. Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist Agricultural Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber commented, “While expected harvest could still meet South Africa’s annual size consumption of roughly 12 million, leaving the country with a small export volume, the figure remains tentative” Commercial farmers are posed with a great loss looking at the expense input that was spent on this season.

The CEC sees summer crop production for 2024 failing to 15.589 million tonnes from over 20.1 million tonnes last year. It is fully a decline of over 21 percent. But that leaves little South Africa’s hungry neighbors, Zambia has declared a drought disaster and there are scant white maize supplies on global markets. The final crop in South Africa could be worse than currently suspected.